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127 stories
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- The U.S.-Iran Pause: Will the Hormuz Strait Reopen by August 31?very unlikely14%on PolymarketJul 27, 2026Open
- Mass Shooting at Seattle Center Leaves 2 Dead, 5 Woundedmore likely than not52%on ProbableJul 27, 2026Hero of the dayOpen
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- Drug Test Clears ICE Shooting Victim's Van — Will Anyone Be Charged?very unlikely12%on ProbableJul 25, 2026Hero of the dayOpen
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- Trump's New Global Tariff: Forced Labor as the Hookmore likely than not52%on ProbableJul 24, 2026Hero of the dayOpen
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- U.S.-Iran War: Strikes, Killed Soldiers, and a Ceasefire Pushunlikely22%on PolymarketJul 21, 2026Hero of the dayOpen
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- Trump Rewrites Endangered Species Habitat Rulesmore likely than not62%on ProbableJul 11, 2026Hero of the dayOpen
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- US Strikes Iran and Reimpose Sanctions Amid NATO Summit Turbulenceunlikely22%on ProbableJul 8, 2026Hero of the dayOpen
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- Trump Says He Overruled the Plan to Cancel the Mall Celebrationvery unlikely6%on ProbableJul 6, 2026Hero of the dayOpen
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- America at 250: Heat, Disruptions, and a Nation Taking Stocknear certain95%on ProbableJul 4, 2026Hero of the dayRight
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- Hormuz's Brief Opening and What It Means for Iran's Leveragemore likely than not54%on ProbableJul 2, 2026Hero of the dayOpen
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- Supreme Court Backs Late-Arriving Mail-In Ballotsmore likely than not58%on ProbableJun 30, 2026Hero of the dayOpen
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- Supreme Court Clears the Way to End TPS for Haitians and Syriansmore likely than not62%on ProbableJun 26, 2026Hero of the dayOpen
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- Will the UK's new Russia energy sanctions announced at the G7 in June 2026 result in a measurable reduction in Russia's oil and gas export revenues by December 31, 2026?unlikely22%on ProbableJun 16, 2026Hero of the dayOpen
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- U.S.-Iran Deal Reached — But the Strait of Hormuz Backlog Is Another Problemmore unlikely than not38%on ProbableJun 15, 2026Open
- Will Mitch McConnell resign from the Senate before the end of 2026?more unlikely than not28%on ProbableJun 15, 2026Hero of the dayOpen
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- Will Trump's name stay off the Kennedy Center permanently after court-ordered removal?unlikely30%on ProbableJun 14, 2026Hero of the dayOpen
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- What does the US government's block on foreign access to Anthropic's AI mean, and will Fable 5 come back online for international users?coin flip50%on ProbableJun 14, 2026Hero of the dayOpen
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- Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?very likely94%on PolymarketJun 9, 2026Hero of the dayRight
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