Probable forecastRight · Outcome: no
2026 FIFA World Cup: African and Smaller Nations' Chances
Probable’s read
High confidence. Synthesized from prediction markets, professional analysts, public opinion, and official data. How we forecast →
Where the prediction market sits
Probable cited Polymarket as the primary market reference for this forecast.
The question we’re forecasting
2026 FIFA World Cup: African and Smaller Nations' Chances
Resolves by July 20, 2026.
Resolution
The market resolved no on July 23, 2026. That makes Probable’s read correct by our calibration rule (we score “right” when our probability was on the side that actually happened).
See the full track record on the scoreboard.
From the briefing
This forecast was published in Probable’s briefing on Tuesday, June 9, 2026: Tuesday on Probable — Peru's presidential race is too close to call, the World Cup field has clear long shots, and US inflation data lands Wednesday.
Our record: 78% correct across 68 graded forecasts. Every forecast we publish is graded in public. See the scoreboard →
Probable’s forecasts synthesize prediction markets, professional analysts, public opinion, and official data. Drafted with AI from cited sources. Reviewed before publishing. Not financial advice. Methodology · Spot an error?