Track record
Our scoreboard
Probable is built on the premise that we will sometimes be wrong. This page is the public record of how often that happens.
When a question we have written about resolves — a market closes, an election is called, an inflation number is released — we score what we said against what actually happened. The scoreboard updates automatically. A human reviews each entry before it posts.
Track record so far
Probable has not yet had any forecasts resolve, so there is nothing to score. Once forecasts begin resolving, the box above will fill in automatically with a running hit rate, a count of right calls and wrong calls, and links to the briefings the forecasts came from.
Recently resolved
The most recent forecasts that have a clear outcome, newest first.
Nothing has resolved yet. The first entries will appear here automatically as markets close and events land.
Published corrections
When we got something wrong and posted a correction. Newest first.
No corrections to publish yet — which is partly because we have not published a briefing yet. The log opens as soon as we ship.
Want to flag a mistake we have not caught? corrections@theprobablenews.com. See our methodology for how this works in detail.