Terms of Service

Probable publishes probability estimates, synthesis, and analysis about news, politics, and markets. Our goal is to help you understand what is actually likely to happen, grounded in real sources: regulated prediction markets, professional analyst surveys, public opinion polls, and official government data.

Probable is not a financial adviser, investment adviser, broker, dealer, attorney, accountant, or any other kind of licensed professional. Nothing on this site constitutes financial advice, investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or any other form of professional advice. Nothing here is a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security, asset, or financial instrument.

Not financial advice. This disclaimer applies to every briefing, every forecast number, every probability estimate, and every piece of analysis Probable publishes, without exception. If you make a financial, legal, or other consequential decision based on what you read here, that decision is yours. We are not responsible for it.

Every probability number Probable publishes is a synthesis of available evidence at a specific point in time. It is our best editorial judgment — not a prediction of what will happen, not a guarantee, and not a statement of fact about the future.

Forecasts will be wrong. Markets move. Experts disagree. Events are unpredictable. Our public scoreboard tracks our historical accuracy precisely because we think intellectual honesty about our errors is more important than protecting an image of infallibility. We recommend reading it before relying on any of our estimates.

Probable makes no warranty, express or implied, about the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or fitness for any purpose of any forecast, estimate, or analysis published on this site.

Probable is an AI-assisted publication. An automated pipeline gathers source material (market data, news headlines, official data) and sends it to a large language model — Claude, made by Anthropic — which drafts the analysis under editorial rules we control. A human reviewer proofreads each piece before it goes live, checking for tone, obvious errors, and off-brand phrasing. The human does not independently verify every data point.

Full details of our sourcing, methodology, and AI disclosure are on our methodology page. Our correction policy and correction log are on the scoreboard.

By reading Probable you acknowledge that content is AI-assisted and that you will not treat it as human expert opinion.

All original content on theprobablenews.com — briefings, analysis, probability summaries, site copy, and design — is owned by Probable and protected by copyright.

You may share brief excerpts (a sentence or two, a probability estimate) with attribution to Probable and a link to the original page. You may not republish full briefings, copy articles to another website, or reproduce our content in any commercial product without written permission.

To license content, email hello@theprobablenews.com.

By subscribing to the Probable newsletter you agree to receive emails from us. We comply with the CAN-SPAM Act. Every email includes an unsubscribe link. You can unsubscribe at any time.

We do not send advertising emails on behalf of third parties. Sponsor messages, if any, are clearly labeled.

Newsletter subscriptions and email data are managed by Beehiiv. See our privacy policy for details on what data we collect and how we use it.

Probable is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind. We do not warrant that the site will be available at any particular time, that forecasts will be accurate, or that content will be free from errors.

To the fullest extent permitted by law, Probable and its operators will not be liable for any indirect, incidental, special, consequential, or punitive damages — including loss of profits, data, or goodwill — arising from your use of this site or reliance on any content published here, even if we have been advised of the possibility of such damages.

Probable synthesizes data from third-party sources including Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold Markets, Bloomberg, the Federal Reserve, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and others. We cite our sources on every forecast. We are not affiliated with any of these organizations, and they have not endorsed us.

Links to third-party sites are provided for reference only. We are not responsible for the content, practices, or accuracy of any site we link to.

Note on Polymarket. Probable cites Polymarket as a data source for probability estimates. Polymarket is not available to US residents for trading purposes. We do not direct you to Polymarket for trading. We use its market prices as one input in our editorial synthesis.

You agree not to use Probable to:

• Scrape or bulk-copy content for training AI models or for redistribution without permission.
• Attempt to access any non-public part of the site.
• Impersonate Probable or suggest any affiliation or endorsement that does not exist.
• Use our content in any way that violates applicable law.

We correct errors publicly. When a published forecast contains a material error, we update the article, note the correction prominently, and log it on the scoreboard. To report a potential error, email corrections@theprobablenews.com.

These terms are governed by the laws of the United States. Any dispute arising from your use of Probable will be resolved under US federal law and the laws of the state in which Probable is operated, without regard to conflict-of-law principles. You agree that any legal claim or action must be filed in courts of competent jurisdiction within the United States.

We may update these terms at any time. The “Last updated” date at the top of this page will change when we do. Significant changes will be noted in the newsletter. Continued use of the site after any update constitutes acceptance of the revised terms.

Questions about these terms: hello@theprobablenews.com

Corrections: corrections@theprobablenews.com

Press: press@theprobablenews.com