Probable forecastRight · Outcome: yes
SpaceX IPO Prices at $135 — Will It Close Above That on Day One?
Manifold traders lean toward yes, but thin volume means this number deserves skepticism.
Probable’s read
Low confidence. Synthesized from prediction markets, professional analysts, public opinion, and official data.
What’s likely. Business Insider reported that SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 a share, making it the largest stock market debut on record by that account, and The Washington Post reported that the offering made Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire on paper. On Manifold, traders put the probability of a closing price above $135 on the first trading day at 73 percent. That is a meaningful lean toward the upside, though the realistic range runs roughly 55 to 91 percent given the single, low-volume source.
What the markets say
Manifold traders put SpaceX closing above $135 on its first trading day at 73 percent.
Source: ManifoldA separate Manifold market put the probability of SpaceX closing worth more than $2 trillion on IPO day at 62 percent.
Source: Manifold
How Probable got to 73 percent
Both figures come from a single platform, Manifold, with combined 24-hour volume under $1,400 — thin enough that the forecast engine reduced their weight to roughly 40 percent of full. Probable uses the 73 percent figure from the closing-price market as the headline number, with the $2 trillion valuation market's 62 percent serving as a corroborating data point that points in the same direction. Because this is a single-source read, confidence is low, and readers should treat the 55–91 percent interval as the honest range rather than anchoring too tightly on 73.
Why it matters to you
The SpaceX IPO is the largest in US market history by Business Insider's account, and its first-day trading performance will set the reference price for a company whose valuation affects Elon Musk's net worth and broader tech market sentiment.
What to watch
Watch the opening print when US markets open Friday: a strong gap above $135 would confirm the Manifold lean; a flat or negative open would quickly deflate it.
Further reading
- Business Insider — “Record-setting IPO prices at $135 a share”
- The Washington Post — “Elon Musk is the world's first trillionaire (on paper) thanks to the SpaceX IPO”
The question we’re forecasting
Will SpaceX's closing price on its first trading day be greater than $135?
Resolves by December 31, 2026.
Resolution
The market resolved yes on June 12, 2026. That makes Probable’s read correct by our calibration rule (we score “right” when our probability was on the side that actually happened).
See the full track record on the scoreboard.
From the briefing
This forecast was published in Probable’s briefing on Friday, June 12, 2026: Friday on Probable — The SpaceX IPO prices at history, a US-Iran deal inches toward signing, and someone carves a protest into the National Mall.
Probable’s forecasts synthesize prediction markets, professional analysts, public opinion, and official data. Drafted with AI from cited sources. Reviewed before publishing. Not financial advice. Methodology · Spot an error?