Probable forecastOpen
The Fed Isn't Moving in July
A July rate hold is the overwhelming probability — Polymarket prices any move this month at just 26% in aggregate, leaving roughly 74% for no change.
Probable’s read
High confidence. Based on prediction-market pricing.
Market cross-check: 27% — Probable's read differs by 47 points, for the reasons below.
Polymarket prices a 25 bps hike at 25%, a 50 bps hike at 1%, a 25 bps cut at 0%, and a 50 bps cut at 0% — implying roughly a 74% probability of no change, derived by subtracting all move probabilities from 100. These are liquid markets with over $580,000 in combined 24-hour volume, making them strong signals. No analyst data was provided to push against this read, so Probable stays close to the market-implied number.
What’s likely. Adding up what Polymarket traders are pricing across the four rate-move scenarios — a 25 bps hike at 25%, a 50 bps hike at 1%, a cut of any size at essentially 0% — the implied probability of an unchanged rate decision at the July FOMC meeting is roughly 74%. That is a strong consensus, and with no analyst or official data in today's inputs pointing in a different direction, Probable sees no reason to depart from it. The most live risk is a surprise hike, not a cut.
The evidence
Prediction markets
Polymarket traders priced a 25 basis-point rate hike at 25%, on roughly $586,000 in 24-hour volume.
25%Source: Polymarket
Polymarket traders priced a 50 basis-point hike at just 1%, and a rate cut of any size at essentially 0%.
1%Source: Polymarket
The synthesis
How Probable got to 74 percent
Four separate Polymarket markets covering the possible July FOMC outcomes converge on the same picture: no meaningful probability of a cut, a 25% chance of a 25 bps hike, and essentially zero chance of a 50 bps hike. Together they imply a roughly 74% probability that rates are unchanged on July 29. The combined 24-hour volume across the four rate-move markets exceeds $1.9 million, making this one of the more liquid reads in today's inputs. The macro backdrop helps explain why the market is priced this way: Reuters reports oil has hit $100 a barrel, and today's lead story adds fresh tariff-driven inflation risk — a combination that argues against a cut but also makes a hike a live, if minority, possibility rather than a foregone conclusion. Probable stays at 74%, with confidence at medium because no analyst or government data independently corroborates the market signal.
Why it matters to you
With oil at $100 a barrel — as reported by Reuters — and tariff-driven inflation risks re-entering the picture via today's lead story, the Fed's July decision sets the near-term tone for whether monetary policy tightens into an already stressed macroeconomic environment.
What to watch
Any Fed official statement or leak suggesting a surprise hike is under active discussion would immediately move the 25% hike probability higher and narrow the hold probability below 70 percent.
Further reading
- Polymarket — “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?”
- Reuters — “Wall St falls as tech earnings spark AI spending worries and oil hits $100”
The question we’re forecasting
Will the Fed leave interest rates unchanged at its July 2026 FOMC meeting, resolving by July 29, 2026?
Resolves by July 29, 2026 — then we grade it yes/no on the scoreboard.
From the briefing
This forecast was published in Probable’s briefing on Friday, July 24, 2026: Friday on Probable — Trump's new tariff gambit, the Iran ceasefire on the clock, and a Fed holding firm.
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Probable’s forecasts synthesize prediction markets, professional analysts, public opinion, and official data. Drafted with AI from cited sources. Reviewed before publishing. Not financial advice. Methodology · Spot an error?