Probable forecastOpen
CATL's Yichun Lithium Mine License: A Coin Flip
Probable’s read
Low confidence. Synthesized from prediction markets, professional analysts, public opinion, and official data. How we forecast →
Where the prediction market sits
Probable cited Manifold as the primary market reference for this forecast. View the market →
The question we’re forecasting
Will anyone be criminally charged over the '8647' markings on the National Mall by December 31, 2026?
Resolves by February 28, 2027 — then we grade it yes/no on the scoreboard.
From the briefing
This forecast was published in Probable’s briefing on Thursday, June 11, 2026: Thursday on Probable — Inflation hits a three-year high, the Fed looks frozen, and Elon Musk is closing in on a trillion dollars.
Our record: 78% correct across 68 graded forecasts. Every forecast we publish is graded in public. See the scoreboard →
Probable’s forecasts synthesize prediction markets, professional analysts, public opinion, and official data. Drafted with AI from cited sources. Reviewed before publishing. Not financial advice. Methodology · Spot an error?